Pulp agents have different views on the market

Several agents operating in Asia and the Middle East said late last week that after the increase in purchases from June to July, the pulp market was relatively flat in August, but prices in the Middle East have risen.

When the markets were waiting for positive signals, an agent said that despite the slow progress of business in August, the prices of pulp and eucalyptus pulp produced in North America rose by US$10/metric ton compared to July.

He said that the CNF prices for August are as follows:

Northern bleached softwood Kraft (NBSK) $390-410/metric ton

South Bleached Softwood Kraft (SBSK) USD 370-385/metric ton

Southern Bleached Hardwood Kraft (SBHK) 350-370 USD/metric ton

Beech Kraft 380-390 US dollars / metric ton

He said that the price of Northern Bleached Hardwood Kraft (NBHK) is higher than SBHK by US$10 per metric ton, while in July, hardwood pulp prices in the North and South were all around US$340-350/metric ton.

He believes that the current pulp supplier’s position on price has become tougher than before, when the price was at the bottom, at a cost price in exchange for cash.

Many suppliers sold their inventory in June and July, resulting in a decrease in availability in August. He said: "The seller's inventory is low, there is no doubt." Now that they sell to the user's pulp are new or recently produced, and not long ago stacked in the port are all produced Months. Europe has reported that the consumption of some paper varieties has increased, and he believes that “now is a good opportunity for market turnover”.

Michel Valois, Valois Vision's pulp and paper analyst, said on Friday that if the September/October output of paper increases, the pulp market may soon reverse.

He pointed out that North American and Nordic manufacturers successfully maintained inventory stability in June and July. He said: “The manufacturer’s reduction in output is very large – I have to say that 1.8 million metric tons of inventory (the total number of Norscan stocks in July) is not enough. In the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, users may have to find It's up."

However, the two agents operating in Asia are far more pessimistic.

A Chinese agent said that the Chinese market is weakening. The Canadian NBSK is priced at US$390/metric ton for a 90-day forward payment; in early August, this is the price of a spot payment. Some of the price of Nordic pulp has dropped to 370 US dollars / metric ton, close to radiata pine from New Zealand dollars and Chile; Russian softwood pulp prices also dropped from 370 US dollars / metric ton to 360-370 US dollars / metric ton.

The agent stated that despite the new low prices, demand may have fallen by one-third from June because buyers had prematurely decided that the market had bottomed out a few months ago and ordered it at that time. A lot of pulp.

He said: "Now the price is so low, but they haven't ordered more Canadian pulp. It's very interesting." He pointed out that users are already accustomed to replacing Canadian pulp with other pulps that cost less than $20/metric ton." If Canadian Pulp raises prices further, its market share will shrink even further."

An agent of a Japanese trading company pointed out that Canadian NBSK's offer price in Asia is US$390-400/metric ton, and Chile’s price for radiant pine wood pulp is US$360-370/mt. He is concerned that the price of Chilean Pulp will continue to fall. He believes that although there are not many Canadian pulps currently on the market, in the coming months or even the entire second half of the year, prices may not increase due to increased production of Canadian manufacturers.

The agent pointed out that due to the lack of wood for pulping in Indonesia (which has led to the Asian Pulp and Paper Company's APP ending its external pulp supply), the price of hardwood pulp “will rise”. The current price of hardwood pulp in Indonesia is 360-370 US dollars / metric ton (closer to 370 US dollars / metric ton), compared with 350-360 US dollars / metric ton before 2-3 months. He has not heard the price of 350 USD/metric ton for 2 months.

He also said that after the sale in June of 350-370 U.S. dollars/metric ton, the suppliers of eucalyptus pulps have been less active in Asia.

As for Japan’s demand, he believes that it is “slow but stable” and that the number has not declined due to the economic downturn.