From 2003 to 2004, the gap in China's waste paper market was about 4.5 million tons. In addition to relying heavily on overseas imports, it is also an important way to increase the recovery rate of domestic waste paper.
The International Bureau of Recycling (BIR) said at a press conference a few days ago that Asiaâ€™s demand for waste paper will increase by 11 million tons in the next three years.
David Krapper, Resource Information System (RISl) pointed out that Chinaâ€™s demand for waste paper will be strong and rising. He predicted that from 2003 to 2004, Chinaâ€™s demand for waste paper would increase by about 4.5 million tons. However, he pointed out that many small paper mills in China are being closed due to environmental pollution. The new papermaking capacity in China will replace imports, so the increased demand for waste paper will be compensated.
Since February this year, cardboard raw material prices have been rising all the way, the reporter recently learned from reliable sources that domestic paper-making companies are brewing up the price of cardboard.
Waste paper into raw materials new favorite
According to the analysis and prediction by the China Paper Association and some experts, China's paper and paperboard production in the next few years will be 38 million to 50 million tons in 2005, which will reach 38 kilograms per capita, which is the current Asian average consumption level. In order to reach the current average level of consumption in the world, China will be around 2015, and the total consumption will be more than 80 million tons. The analysis believes that food packaging is the main growth driver for carton boxes. Especially in developed countries such as the United States, the use of paper, agricultural supplies, beverages, and tobacco products is estimated to account for 40% of the total usage. However, at present, the production capacity of paper and paperboard in China is about 30 million tons, and the production initially forms three major bases. The Pearl River Delta Region in Guangdong is one of them, with Dongguan as the mainstay, with an annual production capacity of 3.5 to 4 million tons.
Recently, the reporter learned from the customs that, in 2002, Guangdong Province imported 2.207 million tons of waste paper, and the total value of imports was 244 million US dollars, an increase of 6.2% and 9.1% year-on-year respectively. In the first four months of this year, the provinceâ€™s waste paper imports amounted to 1.123 million tons, and the total value of imports was US$150 million, a year-on-year increase of 52.4% and 1.1 times respectively.
Due to the low recycling rate of paper in China, imported waste paper is becoming one of the important raw materials for China's paper industry. In addition, according to China's current tariffs, foreign paper and paper products must be levied a tariff of 10% to 25%, while pulp, waste paper imports are zero tariffs. Many of the above reasons have caused many papermaking companies in China to have to appeal for the import of waste paper from abroad.
Guangdong Provincial Paper Association Liang Xiangxiang told reporters that the amount of papermaking in the province has increased year by year. According to statistics, in 2002, the provinceâ€™s paper production volume increased by 600,000 tons, an increase of nearly 20% over the previous year. Since 70% of paper products produced by major companies in the province are cardboard for packaging, more than half of the provincial waste paper demand depends on imported waste paper.
Cardboard price rises with the wind
Taking the example of US wastepaper, which accounted for over half of the waste paper imports in Guangdong Province, in March 2002, when news of a possible increase in taxes on imported waste paper from the United States was reported, the import price of waste paper in the United States rose all the way up to 148.4 in August 2002. In US$/ton, the volume and value of exports both reached its peak in March of this year. In April, although the import price dropped slightly, it was still higher than the level of the same period of last year at US$157.3/ton. For this kind of volatility, industry sources revealed that it has indeed affected China's papermaking costs, and thus affect papermaking profits.
In response, 19 large paper-making enterprises, which account for 70% to 80% of Guangdong's production, increased the purchase of domestic waste paper to partially replace imported waste paper to compensate for the spread; on the other hand, they also considered large companies to waste paper. The operation is dominated by futures and is not affected by fluctuations in the short term.
However, according to reliable sources, papermaking companies in Guangdong Province are brewing cardboard price increases, but the price increase will not be excessive. It is said that from the sharp rise in raw materials for cardboard in February, the price of finished products has not been increased. After a few months of market adaptation, the price of finished products will rise. The industry generally believes that in May and June of each year, the peak value of papermaking companies starts, and generally the finished product price will rise.
Increase waste paper recovery
In recent years, due to the constant launch of new paper machines in China, coupled with the increase in environmental protection, the demand for waste paper has increased dramatically, leading to the upsurge of waste paper imports. From the third quarter of 2000 to the second quarter of 2001, most of the domestic waste paper was imported from the United States and Europe. Until the second quarter of 2001, Japanese waste paper entered the Chinese market one after another, but with geographical advantage and At a low price, Japanâ€™s waste paper market share continues to expand.
In the source countries of imported waste paper, the United States is still the leader, because of its high quality, stable supply, and complete sales network, which is welcomed by waste paper users in various countries. However, its price is high, and when the use of paper mills in its home country increases, supply shortages will occur. Therefore, domestic users start to purchase other channels, resulting in a significant change in the source of supply of imported waste paper. According to customs statistics, in recent years, the majority of domestic imports of waste paper have come from Japan, reaching 60%.
Is the continuous increase in Japan's waste paper exports meeting the rapid growth in demand for waste paper in China? Let us analyze the recovery and shipment of waste paper in Japan: The recovery rate of waste paper in Japan has risen rapidly, from 52.1% in 1997 to 60.9% in 2001.
How high is the recovery rate of waste paper in Japan in the future? Because of different calculation methods and different understandings of the comparison between countries, it is difficult to compare with other countries. However, according to the goals set by Japan itself and the speed with which it has grown in recent years, the recovery rate of waste paper should be further increased at the current level, and even they themselves find it very difficult.
According to the current waste paper recovery rate, it is estimated that by 2004, the export volume of recycled waste paper will increase by 200,000 tons. If the recovery rate of waste paper in Japan increases in the next two years, the recovery rate of waste paper in Japan is expected to reach 65% in 2004, according to the increase in the recovery rate of waste paper by one percentage point and the increase in its export volume by 300,000 to 350,000 tons. Its export volume will reach 2.65 million tons; it will reach 66%, and its export volume will be 3 million tons; even if it reaches 67%, the export volume will only reach 3.3 million tons. According to this growth rate, it will certainly not be able to meet the needs of China's new growth.
According to the development situation of the domestic paper industry, the demand for waste paper in China will continue to grow in the future, but the domestic waste paper recycling situation is still very unsatisfactory. Therefore, there is still a long time to rely on imports.
However, the changes in demand and price fluctuations in the international waste paper market have caused great pressure on domestic paper mills. China must have new countermeasures: First, develop new sources globally; second, increase domestic waste paper recovery rate. .
For China's waste paper, the issue that has attracted people's attention has always been the quality of waste paper, because past paper in the country contained too much grass pulp. However, in recent years, large-scale paper machines have been continuously put into operation in China. Many of these paper machines use high proportions of imported pulp as raw materials, and the quality of paper and paperboard produced is excellent.
At present, there should be a large amount of good paperboard and waste paper that can be recycled in China. Many of the waste paper cartons imported from China are produced domestically. Therefore, the idea that poor quality of domestic waste paper does not attach importance to recycling is outdated, and local waste paper recycling rates should be increased as soon as possible.
Waste paper classification standards are being developed
Recently, the Ministry of Science and Technology has approved a special funded project â€œStudy on Classification and Relevant Standards for Waste Paper Recyclingâ€ and it is undertaken by the China National Pulp and Paper Industry Research Institute (now China Pulp and Paper Research Institute). The project is planned for two years. The following three criteria were specifically completed within the time: 1. "Classification Standard for Waste Paper Recovery"; 2. "Standard for the Determination of Adhesive Content in Waste Paper"; 3. "Standard for Determination of Ink Residue in Waste Paper".
After the completion of this work, the request for domestic waste paper recycling will be made, and the import of waste paper will also be affected. The National Product Inspection and Quarantine Bureau will also use this standard as the inspection basis for the import of waste paper. Therefore, the development of waste paper classification standards is of great significance in regulating the recycling of waste paper and imported waste paper in China. At the same time, because it will effectively reduce production costs and increase economic efficiency, it will make papermaking companies the biggest beneficiaries of the standard.
In order to make the waste paper classification standard more operational and ensure its effective implementation, two related standards will also be formulated. They will address both the adhesive and ink residue levels in waste paper. Effectively reflect the classification of waste paper, but also assess the capacity of waste paper processing equipment, will provide a preferred basis for papermaking companies to purchase waste paper processing equipment in the future.
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