Yesterday, the decoration and decoration industry started, the shares of Ruihe and Hongtao were up, and Guangtian was close to the daily limit. Analysts pointed out that Jiangsu Yangzhou issued a policy of encouraging the purchase of fine-decorated finished houses to obtain support and affirmation from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development. If the “Yangzhou New Deal†can be promoted nationwide in the future, it is expected to stimulate developers' demand for residential decoration.
"Yangzhou New Deal" stimulates the demand for fine decoration
On May 7, Yangzhou City Housing Authority issued a document, for individuals who purchased a housing area of ​​less than 144 square meters, they can get a reward of four-thousandths to six-thousandths of the contract price of the purchased house. The officials of the Ministry of Housing and Construction also later believed that the "Yangzhou New Deal" was not a bailout, but a positive and beneficial exploration for the industrialization of housing.
CITIC Securities believes that only from the contents of the "Yangzhou New Deal" and the officials of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the residential decoration has won the support of the central and local governments. If the "Yangzhou New Deal" can be promoted in the country in the future, it is expected to greatly stimulate the developers. The demand for residential decoration. Since the beginning of this year, the leading decoration company has a good order trend. Among them, Jinyu has announced a total of 2.6 billion new orders, which is 26% of the 2011 revenue. The trend of rapid growth of leading companies is still the main trend of the current industry development.
Guotai Junan said that due to the fact that about 50% of the owner of the order decoration project is involved in the real estate industry chain, the expected speed of the relevant real estate relaxation is more stimulating for the improvement of the overall operating environment of the decoration industry. In addition, the trend of urbanization construction in China has not changed, and the upward direction of urban construction is still large. At the same time, China's consumption upgrading trend will also promote the development of the decoration industry in a long time. In the context of the decline in the overall economic growth rate in the second quarter, the decoration enterprises still maintain a high interim growth rate, of which Jin Hao (60%-80%), Yaxia shares (50%-70%), Hong Tao shares ( 60%-90%), the investment advantage of the decorative sector is highlighted.
Leading enterprise income is expected to break 10 billion
Even if the real estate regulation is not relaxed, the demand for the decoration and decoration industry is worry-free. UBS Securities believes that real estate regulation will not affect the long-term development trend of residential fine decoration. With the introduction of the national standard for fine decoration acceptance, the industry will maintain rapid growth. I believe that the quality, capital and management under the promotion of “Hengda Model†The three elements of competition will enhance the concentration of large-scale fine decoration enterprises. The characteristics of large orders and high output will enable Guangtian and other leading fine decoration enterprises to quickly break through the 10 billion mark.
UBS Securities believes that the building decoration industry is a typical "big industry, small company", corresponding to the market size of 2.35 trillion, the largest enterprise share is only 0.43%, from the development trend, there will be several sales revenue in the future With a scale of 20-30 billion yuan, long-term path selection will be more important than short-term order growth. The company's own business strategy and competitive advantage are the core factors that determine who will take the lead. For the first time, UBS proposed the strategy of selecting industry investment targets along the “three stages of development†and the “three elements of competition†for residential hardcover, and for the first time, it covered three decorative construction enterprises with different characteristics, namely, Guangtian, Yaxia and Hongtao.
Since the decoration of the house has extremely obvious advantages in many aspects such as decoration cost, construction waste control, use space, user experience, etc., from 1997, the Ministry of Construction began to gradually guide developers to try menu-style decoration, with large-scale real estate development in 2005. With the continuous participation of the business, the residential fine decoration industry has gradually entered a period of rapid development.
UBS Securities believes that residential decoration is a development trend. Local governments have detailed the proportion of fine-decorated residential buildings in the future. The recent outbreak of fine decoration events is expected to promote the introduction of fine decoration acceptance national standards during the year. The proportion of fine decoration in China is only 1/10 of that in developed countries. With the advancement of urbanization, the willingness of large developers to participate in the policy adjustment period is increased. We estimate the proportion of decoration in the next 10 years. .
Different from the market, UBS Securities also believes that the most important factor affecting the growth of the residential fine decoration market is the improvement of the penetration rate and decoration standards of finely decorated houses. The short-term regulation does not change the long-term development trend of the industry.
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