(Information source: Guotai An Market Global Financial Information Analysis System)
Investors were concerned about macroeconomic trends in August, which led to intermediate adjustments in the market. However, with the release of macroeconomic data in September, this concern appeared excessive because almost all of the data are beautiful and the macroeconomic situation is in a steady recovery. in. According to the information of China Securities Journal, the September macro data were specifically interpreted from four aspects.
From the perspective of investment, the cumulative amount of urban fixed asset investment from January to September this year has increased by 33.30% year-on-year, and the growth rate has further increased from 33.00% from January to August. This shows that investment is still one of the important boosters of macroeconomic growth.
From the perspective of consumption, the total retail sales of consumer goods in September increased by 15.50% year-on-year, and the growth rate reached the highest level since February this year.
From the perspective of foreign trade, whether it is exports or imports in September, the rate of decline in growth has narrowed significantly, indicating that the process of foreign trade recovery has begun.
From the financial data, the new RMB loan of 516.7 billion yuan in September was significantly better than the market's previous expectation; and the year-on-year growth rate of M1 also exceeded the growth rate of M2 for the first time during the year, indicating that the capital activity was further strengthened, indicating that liquidity did not appear obvious shrink. At the same time, external hot money and household savings move is expected to further support the market capital. In terms of hot money, some statistics indicate that excluding investment income and foreign exchange gains and losses, there was a large amount of unexplained short-term capital inflows in the increase of foreign exchange reserves in the third quarter, with a total amount of more than 50 billion U.S. dollars; The actual negative interest rate situation may appear in the near future, which can increase the risk appetite of savings funds.
These data make people feel the upward trend of China's economy. With the support of macro data, many analysts at JPMorgan Chase, Bozhong Investment and Guangzhou Bandung believe that the economy is warm and the market outlook is very bright.
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